Springtime is traditionally the busiest time of year for the housing market, and that makes the warm season an unusually reliable barometer of whether business will slow down or heat up for the remainder of the year. Coming out of winter hibernation, buyers take advantage of the nicer weather to browse and shop. Based on what they are willing to offer – and whether their purchase offers are backed by reliable financing – prices begin to find their range.
Heading into the 2009 season, Freddie Mac reports that fixed mortgage rates are at their lowest level since the agency began tracking interest rates way back in 1971. Meanwhile the “Affordability Index” compiled by the National Association of Realtors (NAR) – which gauges the overall affordability of typical American homes during any given economic environment – also broke its own record. The NAR index shows that homes are easier to purchase than they have been since the Affordability Index was created about four decades ago.
Standard & Poor’s/Case-Shiller index also shows that home prices are about 30 percent lower than they were when the market peaked in 2006. On the surface that may appear to be disappointing news. But what it indicates in a more fundamental sense is that much of the excessive, unsustainable, speculative inflation that created the toxic housing bubble has finally been wrung out of prices.
That’s good news for everyone, because with fair prices comes buyer and seller confidence – and the traction that the credit and housing markets have so desperately needed. The Commerce Department is also issuing positive news, saying that home sales for the month of March came in significantly higher than most economists had expected. The estimated number of new homes for sale now represents approximately 10.7 months of inventory, whereas the nation had 12.5 months of excess inventory back in January of this year. If things continue at that pace the inventory will essentially evaporate over the coming months and put a solid floor under the market.
Plus, mortgage rates for both purchases and refinances now average about a point below last springtime’s levels, and the Mortgage Bankers Association reports a record number of mortgage applications. To keep up with the surge in loan processing and underwriting, many lenders – including major players like Bank of America – have added staff and upgraded software. To ensure the smooth flow of credit, the Fed is also busy buying up about $1.5 trillion in mortgage-backed securities.
New home buyers can get an $8,000 tax break, don’t forget, and the IRS defines a “new” buyer in liberal terms as someone who has not owned a home within the past three years. All of these signs of spring point to a blossoming real estate and mortgage climate for 2009.